The Mediterranean Basin is a climate change and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens its agroecosystems including olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socio-economic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae) and affect the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimated the changes in the dynamics and interaction of the two species using physiologically-based demographic models in a GIS context as driven by daily weather from an A1B climate change scenario simulated via a regional earth system model that includes fine scale representation of the effects of topography, and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate. In the economic analysis, the olive/ olive fly system model was used as the production function instead of the commonly-used static economic production – damage control function.

The prospective changes in olive yield (a), olive fly abundance (b) and profit  in the Mediterranean Basin (c).

References

Ponti, Luigi, Andrew Paul Gutierrez, Paolo Michele Ruti, Alessandro Dell’Aquila (in press) Fine scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in 2 the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers.

Ponti L., Cossu Q.A., Gutierrez A.P., 2008. Physiologically based demographic models integrated into geographic information systems for ecologically based pest management in perennial Mediterranean agroecosystems under climate change. Atti Giornate Fitopatologiche 1: 345-352.

Ponti L., Gutierrez A.P., Basso B., Neteler M., Ruti P.M., Dell’Aquila A., Iannetta M., 2013. Olive agroecosystems in the Mediterranean Basin: multitrophic analysis of climate effects with process-based representation of soil water balance. Procedia Environmental Sciences, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2013.06.014