A relatively simple per capita, supply-demand regulated, age-structured model of cotton growth and development is described and used to simulate seven varieties in two species of cotton from different regions of the world. The model is used to examine plant weather and other abiotic variable interactions. Measures of earliness are used to assess varietal characteristics. The model has the form of a population model regulated by the rudiments of physiology. It assumes that the cotton crop canopy is composed of a population of plants with age structure in which each member contains age-structured subpopulations of leaf, stem and root masses and of fruit masses and numbers. The dynamics model for each subpopulation is based upon an age-structured distributed maturation time model with attrition. When the model is given initial conditions, the physiology and dynamics are driven by the observed weather. The Frazer-Gilbert functional response model from animal ecology was modified and used to estimate the photosynthetic, nitrogen and water acquisition rates. A metabolic pool model was used to allocate photosynthate to respiration, growth, reproduction and reserves. A similar model was used to allocate nitrogen. The interplay between the supply and demand of photosynthate, nitrogen and water controls their acquisition rates, the allocation rates of photosynthate and nitrogen, the production rate of new subunits numbers, and the attrition of fruits.
The model proved to be the basis for all other plant and insect models. Model with this level of biological detail are easily embedded in GIS system analyses in USA, Brazil, Egypt and India.
References
Gutierrez, A. P., L. A. Falcon, W. B. Loew, P. Leipzig and R. van den Bosch. 1975. An analysis of cotton production in California: A model for Acala cotton and the efficiency of defoliators on its yields. Env. Ent. 4(1): 125-136.
Gutierrez, A. P., M. A. Pizzamiglio, W. J. Dos Santos, R. Tennyson and A. M.Villacorta. 1984. A general distributed delay time varying life table plant population model: cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) growth and development as an example. Ecol. Modelling 26: 231-249.
Gutierrez, A. P., W. J. Dos Santos, A. Villacorta, M. A. Pizzamiglio, C. K. Ellis, L. H. Carvalho and N. D. Stone. 1991. Modelling the interaction of cotton and the cotton bolll weevil. I. A comparison of growth and development of cotton varieties. J. Appl. Ecol. 28: 371-397.
Gutierrez, A. P., W. J. Dos Santos, M. A. Pizzamiglio, A. M. Villacorta, C. K. Ellis, C.A.P. Fernandes and I. Tutida. 1991. Modelling the interaction of cotton and the cotton boll weevil. II. Boll weevil (Anthonomus grandis) in Brazil. J. Appl. Ecol. 28: 398-418.
Estimating the geographic distribution and relative abundance of invasive species such as the pink bollworm is critical to evaluating their economic impact and strategies for their control. The linked cotton-pink bollworm models were used to project the distribution of the pest in North America.
References
Gutierrez, A.P., C.K. Ellis, T. d’Oultremont and Luigi Ponti. 2006. Climatic limits of pink bollworm in Arizona and California: effects of climate warming. Acta Oecologica 30: 353-364.
Gutierrez A.P., Ponti L., 2013. Eradication of invasive species: why the biology matters. Environmental Entomology, http://dx.doi.org/10.1603/EN12018
Gutierrez, A. P., W. J. Dos Santos, M. A. Pizzamiglio, A. M. Villacorta, C. K. Ellis, C.A.P. Fernandes and I. Tutida. 1991. Modelling the interaction of cotton and the cotton boll weevil. II. Boll weevil (Anthonomus grandis) in Brazil. J. Appl. Ecol. 28: 398-418.
Gutierrez, A. P., M. A. Pizzamiglio, W. J. Dos Santos, A. Villacorta and K. D. Gallagher. 1986. Analysis of diapause induction and termination in field pink bollworm, Pectinophora gossypilla (Saunders 1843) in Brazil. Environ. Entomol. 15: 494-500.